In Colorado, a measure to decriminalize certain psychedelics is close but yet to be decided. Republican Mehmet Oz is seeking to close a deficit with Democrat John Fetterman in the open-seat race. Ron DeSantis won re-election in Florida, cementing Republicans power in a state that was once a key battleground. Democratic Rep. Andy Kim is facing a self-funding GOP opponent and getting some outside help in the closing week of the campaign. Republican Kevin Kiley is an odds-on favorite to win this new open seat. To read recent stories on the race for the Senate, click here. To retain control of the House, Democrats must win 46 of these seats (after accounting for the races the parties are expected to win most easily). Can they turn that around? Nov. 8, 2022, Republicans are favored to win the open Senate races in North Carolina and Ohio, but if Democrats have a better-than-expected day, these are two places we might see evidence of it. Alicia Parlapiano . In Virginia, the performances of Democratic incumbents in the 2nd and 7th districts may offer early indications of how the party will fare in House races overall. We got to 59 percent in Colorado in 2022. Our mean seat projection is 51 (R) and 49 (D). 2022 United States Senate elections Albert Sun 2022 Given the narrow size of recent Senate majorities, that underperformance is quite significant. Republicans' late primary complicates their quest to oust Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan in the nation's smallest swing state. Table 4 presents data on the 16 Senate contests in which the model predicted the wrong winner. Senate 2022 Election Forecast Latest Predictions Nov. 8, 2022, In Kentucky, voters will decide whether to approve a constitutional amendment that would effectively ensure the implementation of a near-total abortion ban. 2022 Can a moderate Republican keep holding on to a blue-trending suburban seat? Greg Abbott brushed off a well-funded challenge from Beto ORourke, winning a third term as Texas governor. Some of our partners may process your data as a part of their legitimate business interest without asking for consent. Kathy Hochul claimed victory late Tuesday against Representative Lee Zeldin, a conservative Republican. In two states, shifts in state power could lead to new restrictions. All rights reserved. Heres what the vote count could look like this year. However, there was a noticeable discrepancy between the success rates of Republican and Democratic candidates in states won by their partys presidential candidate. You know you are right when you are hated by the left and the right. In contrast, predictions for races with predicted margins of 10 points or more were correct over 95% of the time. That leaves Arizona, Georgia and Pennsylvania in the middle. Senate Election Forecast 2022: Ratings, Predictions & Key He's happy to chat about weather forecasting too. Individual showings of Senate winners varied widely. Third, he would somehow have to obscure the rightward lurch he just went through in the current legislative session the six-week abortion ban, the permitless carry, the assaults on public education and diversity.
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